Friday, 19 July 2013

Making Decisions

Decision-thinking
Did he have a decision making process?
What should I do? There’s too many options to decide.

Is this one of your common problem? Would it help you to know a couple of simple techniques that many companies use to make decisions?

Decision-making is a problem for many people. I faced the same challenges when I was a young engineer. A mentor of mine taught me a technique that I later studied at university, and used on projects. I've taught this technique to my children so they can use it during their life journey. I hope it will help you too.

A common tool for easy decision-making is to draw a line on a piece of paper and list down the advantages and disadvantages of your choice. This is useful if you have limited options. For example, “Do I want to do this or not?”

In Dale Carnegie’s How to Stop Worrying and Start Living (1948) I believe this was the approach taken by Benjamin Franklin. I also saw this technique mentioned in the movie Mrs Winterbourne. Now, don’t judge me for watching that movie: I was young and didn't particularly enjoy it (sorry to all the Brendan Fraser fans out there).

A more complicated technique can help you when you have a number of options. My mentor called it the Rational Method but it is commonly known as multi-criteria analysis.

For this technique, you need to create a matrix listing the options on one side of the matrix and factors on the other side. Factors are those criteria you believe are important for your options to satisfy. The options are evaluated against the factors.
decision-brainstorm-thinking
Consider brainstorming options and factors
Let’s look at an example. Say you want to buy a car but you aren't sure what to buy. First, you would list the factors you think are important for your decision. Some examples may be the budget available, the colour of the car, the number of seats, boot/trunk capacity, engine capacity etc. You list this down on the left side of the matrix.

Then you would list the options: that is, what cars you'd like to consider buying. Say you have five options such as a Ford Fiesta, BMW 318i, Honda Accord and a Toyota Tarago. These options are placed on the top row of your matrix.
The decision-making now comes down to rating each option on the basis of how is satisfies the factors. After completing the rating process, you tally up the scores at the bottom to find out which option has the highest score—your best option. You may find ratings some criteria somewhat subjective (e.g. colour) while others you may find are easily quantifiable (e.g. available budget).

When companies do this type of evaluation they normally introduce a weighting for each factor. This is because some factors have greater importance than others. For example, the colour of the car may be less important to you than the number of seats. If you didn't have a weighting, then each factor would be equally important. This becomes particularly important when the scores are close. An example of a poor decision may be that a Honda is chosen because of its colour when the Tarago may be better because seating capacity is more important to you.

What I've said above is a standard decision-making methodology used by large companies. I've used the multi-criteria technique previously on a project that I managed, where I had to recommend the preferred location for a wind farm.

The multi-criteria technique has been around for a long time. It was mentioned in Dale Carnegie’s book back in 1948. I wonder if the Hemienu used such a process when he built the pyramids?

Recommended reading

  • How to Stop Worrying and Start Living by Dale Carnegie. This is a timeless book that will help you gain greater control of your life.
  • Check out how this process helps with decision making in a major project stage-gate development process

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